Botnets have been around for a long time. For those not familiar, a botnet is a number of compromised computers put under the command and control of a single individual or group. Individually compromised computers are known as zombies. These systems are anywhere and everywhere in the world. They can be the machine you are reading this from. They can be a home or work computer.
It was only a couple of years ago that Vint Cerf, one of the original developers of the Internet estimated that one out of every four computers had malware and potentially part of a botnet. At the same time the number of Internet enabled computers worldwide was about 600 million. Today, F-Secure estimates the number of Internet accessible systems to be about double that at 1.2 billion systems. F-Secure claims that Finland has the lowest malware/botnet infection rate at about 1 percent of all systems. So likely, the number is somewhere between 1 percent and 25 percent. While that is a big spread, what is bigger is the number of systems that represents where 1 percent is over 12 million systems alone.
The Conficker botnet has lots of estimates on its size being anywhere from about 3 million to 12 million systems strong…and is likely one of the very biggest. But Conficker is just one single botnet and there are many.
Systems in the U.S. account for only about 6 percent of Conficker computers. This is likely a similar percentage of infection across other botnets as well. This is primarily due to the high rate in which we have legal versions of operating systems and applications and can patch them. In other areas of the world where software pirating is a huge problem, there is a much higher infection rate because those systems are not allowed to recieve patches and updates.
These botnets have very sophisticated communications with different methods including web access, peer-to-peer, etc. This gives the botnet a secure (encrypted) method as well as differing methods to give and accept command and control instructions.
The scary thing about botnets is that with that many systems under the control of one individual, they could do a tremendous amount of damage to segments of the Internet or any business they targeted. This would likely include distributed denial of service attacks (DDOS). To date, botnets have been used to distribute SPAM which is why SPAM now accounts for more than 90% of all email sent. When the controllers decide to do something really malicious…watch out!
On April 1st, 2009 Conficker went into a new mode that enhanced its capabilities. Some thought this would lead to some instructions (or payload) that would launch some attack. In reality, nothing happened for about a week. Then the first update came instructing Conficker systems to begin harvesting new systems. So they began scanning other systems looking for unpatched systems to compromise and spread to. I think what scared some professionals was that previous to it getting its April 1 update, it had stopped all activity. So some thought that might be a sign of the quiet before the storm. Others thought that the botnet controllers were negotiating for the use of the botnet once April 1st hit. While this may be true, with the new instructions for the systems to begin harvesting other computers, it may be that those negotiations ended. It may mean nothing at all.
While the new instructions are timed to end in May, we must remember that the controllers can send a payload anytime they want to these systems to use new instructions.
With (likely) tens of millions of systems in botnets, I believe we are at a tipping point where the threat they impose is formitable and we need to be more aware of the threat. While there isn’t a lot we can do to stop they once they take action against us, we can do a lot to keep our systems from joining the ranks of a botnet.
First, you should check if your systems are already infected. There are many ways to do this. For Conficker, there is a really easy method described here. Most system virus and spyware protection packages can detect most botnet worms and infections. Other applcations like Spybot Search and Destroy and Adaware as well as the free tool from Microsoft are also helpful. But don’t make the mistake of assuming you only need one tool.
Second, keep the worms out and off your systems. This takes a layered security approach and no one single solution. Talk with a security professional about the best ways to protect yourself from botnet infections.